How the Denver Nuggets Can Improve This 2026 Offseason

Following a disappointing exit to the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Denver Nuggets enter the 2026 offseason as a luxury tax team with $191.6M in committed payroll against a $154.6M salary cap — $37M over the cap line. As Nikola Jokic's extension looms over the heads of the front office, they must not only capitalize on his prime, but also plan strategically for the future.

This analysis uses a custom-built SQLite relational database, populated with 2025-26 Basketball Reference advanced statistics and HoopsHype salary data, to answer one question: how should Denver allocate its limited remaining roster capital?

The core finding is that Denver's positional value is deeply uneven. The center position produces 8.9 average win shares — a metric driven almost entirely by Nikola Jokic — while the power forward and small forward groups average just 1.2 and 1.6 win shares respectively, both with negative Box Plus/Minus. The team cannot improve at center. It must improve the wings.

Given the cap constraints, Denver's available tools are the Non-Taxpayer MLE (~$12.8M), the Bi-Annual Exception (~$4.5M), and veteran minimum contracts (~$3.6M). Max contracts are not available. This memo recommends three external signings and a priority re-sign list for Denver's nine own free agents.

Denver has zero cap space. At $191.6M in payroll, the Nuggets are $37M over the cap and firmly in luxury tax territory. Jokic ($55.2M), Murray ($46.4M), and Gordon ($22.8M) alone account for $124.5M — 65% of total payroll. There is no mechanism to clear cap space without a major trade.

The following table is the direct output of a SQL GROUP BY query joining the players, player_stats, and contracts tables. It shows exactly where Denver's roster capital is producing value — and where it is not.

Players ranked by cost-per-win-share. Lower numbers = greater value per dollar of salary.

Notable: Jokic at $3.7M/WS is among the most efficient supermax contracts in NBA history. Tim Hardaway Jr. ($830K/WS) is the best value player on the roster. Zeke Nnaji ($9.1M/WS) is the clearest overpay on the books.

Six candidates pre-screened for cap tool fit and positional need, then ranked by cost-per-win-share from the SQL analysis query.

Nine Nuggets players hit free agency this summer. Priority informed by $/WS analysis and cap tool constraints.

Of course, we would not be remiss to address the elephant that looms over many teams' offseason plans — the LeBron James proposal. Despite his age, LeBron's value as a secondary scorer and facilitator behind Jokic and Murray would help alleviate some of the pressure opposing teams put on them during clutch time. With an already competent supporting cast around them, it may be worth considering the NBA's all-time leading scorer if they manage to find an agreement that works around their financial timetable.

Practically speaking, Denver cannot sign LeBron outright — they have no cap space and no MLE large enough for a player of his market value ($50.7M AAV). Any pursuit would require a sign-and-trade framework.

Denver's 2026 offseason is not about transformation — it is about targeted reinforcement of a championship-caliber core. Three clear priorities emerge from the SQL analysis:

Combined, these three moves cost approximately $19.4M in new commitments — within the MLE plus two minimum contract framework. They directly address the two weakest positional groups (PF/SF at -0.75 and -0.45 BPM) and the backup PG hole that has historically been Denver's playoff Achilles heel.

Methodology: All rankings were produced by SQL queries joining the players, player_stats, and contracts tables in a custom-built SQLite database (nba_contracts.db). Data sourced from Basketball Reference advanced stats (2025-26 season) and HoopsHype/Spotrac salary data. Analysis conducted as part of a portfolio project at the University of Southern California Marshall School of Business.